This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Alabama

6–2 (4–2 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating18.512th of 138
SP+ offense36.612th of 138
SP+ defense18.423rd of 138
PRIME20.57th of 138
Elo19397th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game38.213th
Yards per play6.6533rd
Success rate43.6%72nd
Explosive play rate15.1%17th
Yards per carry5.8131st
Yards per pass attempt7.9356th
Sack rate allowed7.9%109th
3rd down conversion35.9%96th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed21.249th
Yards per play allowed6.1990th
Success rate allowed42.5%76th
Explosive plays allowed12.3%92nd
Yards per carry allowed4.1426th
Yards per attempt allowed9.52131st
Sack rate9.0%15th
3rd downs allowed42.9%99th

Players

Daniel Hill (RB), Keelon Russell (QB), Lotzeir Brooks (WR), Rico Scott (WR), Trae'shawn Brown (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. East CarolinaW 48–10
2at KentuckyW 45–17
3vs. Florida StateW 50–36
4vs. South CarolinaW 49–18
5at Mississippi StateW 56–23
6vs. GeorgiaL 17–20
7at TennesseeL 10–26
8vs. Texas A&MW 31–20

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Alabama with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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