This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Texas A&M

4–4 (1–4 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating9.933rd of 138
SP+ offense29.946th of 138
SP+ defense20.431st of 138
PRIME6.043rd of 138
Elo172826th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game28.273rd
Yards per play5.7698th
Success rate46.0%43rd
Explosive play rate11.6%86th
Yards per carry4.77100th
Yards per pass attempt7.5474th
Sack rate allowed6.4%90th
3rd down conversion47.5%22nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed18.928th
Yards per play allowed5.3135th
Success rate allowed34.9%12th
Explosive plays allowed12.1%87th
Yards per carry allowed4.4041st
Yards per attempt allowed6.4642nd
Sack rate2.9%131st
3rd downs allowed27.1%6th

Players

KJ Edwards (RB), Mario Craver (WR), Rueben Owens (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Missouri StateW 50–0
2vs. Arizona StateW 48–20
3vs. KentuckyL 21–31
4at LSUL 6–35
5vs. ArkansasW 34–7
6at MissouriL 6–27
7vs. The CitadelW 41–0
8at AlabamaL 20–31

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Texas A&M with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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