This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

East Carolina

3–4 (1–2 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-3.891st of 138
SP+ offense20.9105th of 138
SP+ defense24.558th of 138
PRIME-9.1104th of 138
Elo143383rd of 138
Week 9

Temple at East Carolina

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: East Carolina 29, Temple 24. Big Al's pick: East Carolina (64%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game25.094th
Yards per play5.54114th
Success rate37.6%121st
Explosive play rate11.1%98th
Yards per carry5.4746th
Yards per pass attempt5.91125th
Sack rate allowed5.3%67th
3rd down conversion33.3%112th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed26.393rd
Yards per play allowed5.3137th
Success rate allowed35.6%18th
Explosive plays allowed13.0%103rd
Yards per carry allowed3.9518th
Yards per attempt allowed7.9188th
Sack rate10.1%9th
3rd downs allowed31.8%20th

Players

Emory Williams (QB), Nathaniel Joseph (WR), TJ Engleman (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at AlabamaL 10–48
2vs. App StateL 24–27
3at Old DominionW 20–17
4vs. North Carolina CentralW 42–9
6vs. RiceW 28–12
7at UABL 17–30
8at MemphisL 34–41

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare East Carolina with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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