This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Georgia

6–1 (4–1 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating26.52nd of 138
SP+ offense39.42nd of 138
SP+ defense13.34th of 138
PRIME25.72nd of 138
Elo20234th of 138
Week 9

Florida vs. Georgia

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Georgia 39, Florida 22. Big Al's pick: Georgia (89%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game43.03rd
Yards per play7.981st
Success rate52.6%5th
Explosive play rate17.5%3rd
Yards per carry6.852nd
Yards per pass attempt9.5411th
Sack rate allowed4.3%39th
3rd down conversion53.2%6th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed15.916th
Yards per play allowed4.9616th
Success rate allowed36.7%28th
Explosive plays allowed8.7%12th
Yards per carry allowed4.1527th
Yards per attempt allowed6.1026th
Sack rate7.9%31st
3rd downs allowed38.1%65th

Players

Gunner Stockton (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Tennessee StateW 63–3
2vs. Western KentuckyW 70–20
3at ArkansasW 45–17
4vs. OklahomaW 41–13
5vs. VanderbiltW 38–14
6at AlabamaW 20–17
7vs. AuburnL 24–27

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Georgia with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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