This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

Florida State

3–4 (1–3 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating4.955th of 138
SP+ offense32.833rd of 138
SP+ defense28.290th of 138
PRIME6.836th of 138
Elo160948th of 138
Week 9

Clemson at Florida State

Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Florida State 28, Clemson 25. Big Al's pick: Florida State (68%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game31.649th
Yards per play6.5440th
Success rate42.5%81st
Explosive play rate14.5%26th
Yards per carry5.4547th
Yards per pass attempt8.4042nd
Sack rate allowed7.9%110th
3rd down conversion42.0%60th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed27.9103rd
Yards per play allowed6.97122nd
Success rate allowed44.8%100th
Explosive plays allowed13.9%112th
Yards per carry allowed6.05131st
Yards per attempt allowed8.55111th
Sack rate7.5%37th
3rd downs allowed45.2%116th

Players

Ashton Daniels (QB), Duce Robinson (WR), Ousmane Kromah (RB), Rylan Kennedy (DL).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. New Mexico StateW 34–17
1vs. SMUL 24–27
3at AlabamaL 36–50
4vs. Central ArkansasW 34–7
5vs. VirginiaW 38–7
6at LouisvilleL 20–44
7at MiamiL 35–43

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Florida State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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