This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Tennessee

6–2 (3–2 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating17.513th of 138
SP+ offense33.726th of 138
SP+ defense16.617th of 138
PRIME14.316th of 138
Elo182912th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game32.248th
Yards per play6.3951st
Success rate48.5%26th
Explosive play rate12.3%66th
Yards per carry5.7632nd
Yards per pass attempt8.1746th
Sack rate allowed10.0%123rd
3rd down conversion39.8%72nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed16.220th
Yards per play allowed4.9212th
Success rate allowed36.9%30th
Explosive plays allowed9.2%19th
Yards per carry allowed5.3199th
Yards per attempt allowed5.225th
Sack rate11.2%4th
3rd downs allowed28.8%11th

Players

Amare Campbell (LB), Braylon Staley (WR), Daune Morris (RB), DeSean Bishop (RB), Faizon Brandon (QB), George MacIntyre (QB), Mariyon Dye (DL), Mike Matthews (WR), Tyree Weathersby (DL), Xavier Gilliam (DL).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. FurmanW 56–9
2at Georgia TechW 45–24
3vs. Kennesaw StateW 42–9
4vs. TexasL 17–20
5vs. AuburnW 24–14
6at ArkansasW 24–17
7vs. AlabamaW 26–10
8at South CarolinaL 24–27

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Tennessee with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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