This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Kentucky

7–1 (5–1 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating7.845th of 138
SP+ offense32.040th of 138
SP+ defense23.853rd of 138
PRIME11.524th of 138
Elo163439th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game32.943rd
Yards per play5.14125th
Success rate42.6%80th
Explosive play rate9.8%118th
Yards per carry4.49114th
Yards per pass attempt6.04122nd
Sack rate allowed6.2%87th
3rd down conversion31.3%125th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed24.875th
Yards per play allowed6.1487th
Success rate allowed49.2%130th
Explosive plays allowed11.6%80th
Yards per carry allowed4.8071st
Yards per attempt allowed7.8886th
Sack rate7.8%32nd
3rd downs allowed56.4%138th

Players

CJ Baxter Jr. (RB), Kenny Darby (WR), Kenny Minchey (QB), Willie Rodriguez (TE).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Youngstown StateW 45–13
2vs. AlabamaL 17–45
3at Texas A&MW 31–21
4vs. South AlabamaW 45–21
5at South CarolinaW 35–34
6vs. LSUW 35–34
7at OklahomaW 21–13
8vs. VanderbiltW 34–17

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Kentucky with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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