This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Mississippi State

4–3 (2–3 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating7.347th of 138
SP+ offense33.724th of 138
SP+ defense26.877th of 138
PRIME10.828th of 138
Elo155558th of 138
Week 9

Mississippi State at Texas

Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Mississippi State 21, Texas 37. Big Al's pick: Texas (88%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game30.061st
Yards per play6.3655th
Success rate45.5%49th
Explosive play rate14.2%31st
Yards per carry5.7035th
Yards per pass attempt7.5076th
Sack rate allowed7.5%106th
3rd down conversion39.2%75th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed27.7102nd
Yards per play allowed6.2596th
Success rate allowed46.2%114th
Explosive plays allowed10.8%61st
Yards per carry allowed4.4444th
Yards per attempt allowed8.39107th
Sack rate6.3%66th
3rd downs allowed45.1%113th

Players

Anthony Evans III (WR), Fluff Bothwell (RB), Kamario Taylor (QB), Kolin Wilson (RB), Sanfrisco Magee (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. UL MonroeW 62–13
2at MinnesotaW 38–13
3at South CarolinaW 41–34
4vs. MissouriW 31–24
5vs. AlabamaL 23–56
7at LSUL 0–31
8vs. OklahomaL 15–23

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Mississippi State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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