This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

South Carolina

4–3 (2–3 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating10.032nd of 138
SP+ offense33.329th of 138
SP+ defense23.649th of 138
PRIME11.026th of 138
Elo170234th of 138
Week 9

South Carolina at Oklahoma

Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET. SP+ projection: South Carolina 21, Oklahoma 23. Big Al's pick: Oklahoma (58%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game36.123rd
Yards per play6.8124th
Success rate48.4%27th
Explosive play rate13.7%37th
Yards per carry6.495th
Yards per pass attempt7.6070th
Sack rate allowed6.3%88th
3rd down conversion48.0%19th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.382nd
Yards per play allowed5.4751st
Success rate allowed41.9%69th
Explosive plays allowed10.6%59th
Yards per carry allowed4.2132nd
Yards per attempt allowed7.1171st
Sack rate7.5%38th
3rd downs allowed35.8%48th

Players

Anthony Addison (DE), Lanorris Sellers (QB), Matthew Fuller (RB), Mazeo Bennett (WR), Tomiwa Durojaiye (DL).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Kent StateW 57–0
2vs. TowsonW 45–9
3vs. Mississippi StateL 34–41
4at AlabamaL 18–49
5vs. KentuckyL 34–35
6at FloridaW 38–19
8vs. TennesseeW 27–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare South Carolina with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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