This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

UTSA

7–1 (4–0 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating0.769th of 138
SP+ offense29.747th of 138
SP+ defense29.096th of 138
PRIME1.761st of 138
Elo158853rd of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game33.539th
Yards per play6.8025th
Success rate52.1%7th
Explosive play rate13.2%41st
Yards per carry5.4250th
Yards per pass attempt8.9322nd
Sack rate allowed4.7%51st
3rd down conversion49.5%15th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed26.092nd
Yards per play allowed5.3239th
Success rate allowed37.8%39th
Explosive plays allowed7.2%7th
Yards per carry allowed5.0785th
Yards per attempt allowed5.7715th
Sack rate3.2%129th
3rd downs allowed34.7%40th

Players

A'Marion Peterson (RB), AJ Wilson (WR), Brandon High (RB), DJ Allen (WR), David Amador (WR), Mekhi Anderson (WR), Owen McCown (QB), Owen Pewee (LB), Will Henderson III (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. UT Rio Grande ValleyW 45–16
2at Texas StateW 31–26
3at TexasL 6–30
4vs. Colorado StateW 59–45
5at RiceW 16–14
6vs. South FloridaW 31–24
7vs. NavyW 38–34
8at TulaneW 42–19

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare UTSA with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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