This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Pac-12

Texas State

4–3 (2–1 Pac-12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating2.562nd of 138
SP+ offense35.515th of 138
SP+ defense32.8118th of 138
PRIME2.956th of 138
Elo156557th of 138
Week 9

Texas State at Boise State

Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Texas State 33, Boise State 43. Big Al's pick: Boise State (77%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game37.118th
Yards per play7.0519th
Success rate50.0%16th
Explosive play rate13.9%36th
Yards per carry6.2211th
Yards per pass attempt8.7229th
Sack rate allowed5.2%65th
3rd down conversion55.6%3rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed30.0111th
Yards per play allowed5.6566th
Success rate allowed42.9%80th
Explosive plays allowed10.9%64th
Yards per carry allowed3.9215th
Yards per attempt allowed6.9965th
Sack rate2.0%136th
3rd downs allowed37.1%56th

Players

Beau Sparks (WR), Davian Jackson (RB), Torrance Burgess Jr. (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at TexasL 7–59
2vs. UTSAL 26–31
3vs. North TexasW 49–35
4vs. Incarnate WordW 63–10
5at San Diego StateL 29–31
7vs. Colorado StateW 66–27
8vs. Utah StateW 20–17

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Texas State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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