This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

Tulane

3–4 (1–2 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-6.7101st of 138
SP+ offense19.6113th of 138
SP+ defense26.674th of 138
PRIME-8.4102nd of 138
Elo149367th of 138
Week 9

Tulane at Charlotte

Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Tulane 33, Charlotte 18. Big Al's pick: Tulane (82%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game20.3119th
Yards per play6.4844th
Success rate35.3%131st
Explosive play rate12.0%75th
Yards per carry5.8130th
Yards per pass attempt7.8761st
Sack rate allowed8.9%119th
3rd down conversion42.5%56th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed24.673rd
Yards per play allowed5.8578th
Success rate allowed41.0%63rd
Explosive plays allowed11.9%85th
Yards per carry allowed5.40103rd
Yards per attempt allowed6.8155th
Sack rate5.4%85th
3rd downs allowed45.1%115th

Players

Destyn Hill (WR), Johnnie Daniels (RB), Kadin Semonza (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at DukeL 3–17
2vs. South AlabamaW 28–24
3at Kansas StateL 20–31
4vs. Southern MissW 24–21
6at ArmyL 17–20
7vs. MemphisW 31–17
8vs. UTSAL 19–42

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Tulane with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.