This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

Rice

1–7 (0–4 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-14.2122nd of 138
SP+ offense17.0121st of 138
SP+ defense31.0108th of 138
PRIME-11.7115th of 138
Elo1129128th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game21.0115th
Yards per play5.9981st
Success rate41.4%89th
Explosive play rate10.6%105th
Yards per carry6.0120th
Yards per pass attempt6.75103rd
Sack rate allowed12.1%132nd
3rd down conversion33.0%118th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed31.8120th
Yards per play allowed6.2294th
Success rate allowed44.3%94th
Explosive plays allowed13.9%115th
Yards per carry allowed5.49107th
Yards per attempt allowed7.3876th
Sack rate4.5%107th
3rd downs allowed42.6%98th

Players

DAndre Hardeman Jr. (RB), Jacurri Brown (QB), Jordan Clark (WR), Tyvonn Byars (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Houston ChristianW 31–3
2at Notre DameL 0–52
3vs. Western MichiganL 21–28
4at Fresno StateL 24–38
5vs. UTSAL 14–16
6at East CarolinaL 12–28
7vs. TulsaL 17–38
8at Florida AtlanticL 49–51

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Rice with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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