This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Texas

5–2 (2–2 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating21.18th of 138
SP+ offense34.419th of 138
SP+ defense13.55th of 138
PRIME22.94th of 138
Elo19029th of 138
Week 9

Mississippi State at Texas

Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET. SP+ projects Texas 37, Mississippi State 21. Big Al's pick: Texas (88%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game30.757th
Yards per play5.9886th
Success rate44.7%61st
Explosive play rate11.5%89th
Yards per carry4.7898th
Yards per pass attempt8.0548th
Sack rate allowed8.9%117th
3rd down conversion42.9%54th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed19.129th
Yards per play allowed4.627th
Success rate allowed33.8%8th
Explosive plays allowed7.1%6th
Yards per carry allowed4.0621st
Yards per attempt allowed5.5010th
Sack rate7.3%43rd
3rd downs allowed32.4%26th

Players

Arch Manning (QB), Brad Jackson (QB), Cam Coleman (WR), Chris Dawn Jr. (WR), Colin Simmons (EDGE), Daylan Smothers (RB), Emmett Mosley V (WR), Raleek Brown (RB), Ryan Wingo (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Texas StateW 59–7
2vs. Ohio StateW 24–23
3vs. UTSAW 30–6
4at TennesseeW 20–17
6vs. OklahomaL 24–27
7vs. FloridaL 24–27
8vs. Ole MissW 34–27

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Texas with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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