This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

South Florida

5–2 (1–2 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating2.761st of 138
SP+ offense26.672nd of 138
SP+ defense24.256th of 138
PRIME-4.290th of 138
Elo161346th of 138
Week 9

UAB at South Florida

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: South Florida 31, UAB 17. Big Al's pick: South Florida (77%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game26.684th
Yards per play——
Success rate——
Explosive play rate——
Yards per carry——
Yards per pass attempt——
Sack rate allowed——
3rd down conversion——

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed15.110th
Yards per play allowed5.4852nd
Success rate allowed42.5%74th
Explosive plays allowed10.3%51st
Yards per carry allowed4.5951st
Yards per attempt allowed7.0066th
Sack rate6.5%62nd
3rd downs allowed39.0%74th

Players

D.J. Crowther (RB), Michael Williams II (DE).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Florida InternationalW 19–9
2at ArmyW 28–24
3vs. Delaware StateW 59–17
4at Bowling GreenW 14–6
5vs. TempleL 13–17
6at UTSAL 24–31
7vs. Kent StateW 29–2

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare South Florida with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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