This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Pac-12

Colorado State

3–4 (1–2 Pac-12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-9.6111th of 138
SP+ offense27.764th of 138
SP+ defense37.3132nd of 138
PRIME-10.3110th of 138
Elo1171125th of 138
Week 9

Colorado State at Utah State

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Colorado State 27, Utah State 30. Big Al's pick: Utah State (72%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game38.612th
Yards per play6.9320th
Success rate46.0%42nd
Explosive play rate11.9%79th
Yards per carry6.279th
Yards per pass attempt7.4778th
Sack rate allowed1.1%3rd
3rd down conversion48.0%18th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed44.0138th
Yards per play allowed8.90138th
Success rate allowed58.2%138th
Explosive plays allowed19.7%138th
Yards per carry allowed7.31138th
Yards per attempt allowed11.88138th
Sack rate4.1%117th
3rd downs allowed55.1%136th

Players

Durell Robinson (), Hauss Hejny (), Jackson Harper (), Jayden Brown (RB), Ksaan Farrar (), Reginald Vick Jr (), Terrence Smith Jr. (), Tommy Maher (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. WyomingW 35–13
2vs. Southern UtahW 58–24
3vs. BYUL 23–41
4at UTSAL 45–59
5vs. Oregon StateL 26–56
7at Texas StateL 27–66
8vs. San Diego StateW 56–49

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Colorado State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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