This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
American Athletic

Navy

2–5 (1–4 American Athletic). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating0.272nd of 138
SP+ offense28.358th of 138
SP+ defense28.088th of 138
PRIME-4.188th of 138
Elo148770th of 138
Week 9

Notre Dame vs. Navy

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Navy 17, Notre Dame 42. Big Al's pick: Notre Dame (97%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game29.764th
Yards per play6.5343rd
Success rate46.6%35th
Explosive play rate13.1%44th
Yards per carry6.1514th
Yards per pass attempt8.4438th
Sack rate allowed7.5%107th
3rd down conversion41.7%62nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed29.1108th
Yards per play allowed6.68115th
Success rate allowed43.3%84th
Explosive plays allowed11.0%72nd
Yards per carry allowed4.1224th
Yards per attempt allowed10.61137th
Sack rate8.1%26th
3rd downs allowed46.0%119th

Players

Aiden Lyczek (DE), Jackson Gutierrez (QB), MarcAnthony Parker (LB), Michael Barrow (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. TowsonW 42–15
2at Florida AtlanticL 30–38
4at UABL 20–24
5at Air ForceL 9–14
6vs. TulsaW 34–26
7at UTSAL 34–38
8vs. North TexasL 39–49

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Navy with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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