This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

USC

6–2 (3–2 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating15.317th of 138
SP+ offense38.77th of 138
SP+ defense23.547th of 138
PRIME13.519th of 138
Elo175223rd of 138
Week 9

Ohio State at USC

Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET. SP+ projects USC 26, Ohio State 35. Big Al's pick: Ohio State (76%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game32.844th
Yards per play6.7527th
Success rate53.0%4th
Explosive play rate13.5%38th
Yards per carry4.65106th
Yards per pass attempt8.9223rd
Sack rate allowed3.9%30th
3rd down conversion50.5%12th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.078th
Yards per play allowed5.7571st
Success rate allowed40.9%60th
Explosive plays allowed11.0%73rd
Yards per carry allowed4.2635th
Yards per attempt allowed7.5780th
Sack rate5.4%88th
3rd downs allowed34.4%39th

Players

Jayden Maiava (QB), Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (WR), King Miller (RB), Luke Wafle (DE), Mark Bowman (TE), Trent Mosley (WR), Waymond Jordan (RB), Zach Williams (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Fresno StateW 39–0
1vs. San José StateW 42–26
2vs. LouisianaW 49–30
3at RutgersW 42–35
4vs. OregonL 27–41
5vs. WashingtonW 25–21
6at Penn StateW 31–23
8at WisconsinL 7–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare USC with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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