This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

Louisiana

5–3 (2–2 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating1.964th of 138
SP+ offense27.666th of 138
SP+ defense25.663rd of 138
PRIME-5.794th of 138
Elo149466th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game30.160th
Yards per play5.60107th
Success rate42.3%83rd
Explosive play rate10.8%103rd
Yards per carry4.8194th
Yards per pass attempt7.0493rd
Sack rate allowed5.1%63rd
3rd down conversion38.7%79th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed21.250th
Yards per play allowed5.5857th
Success rate allowed43.7%90th
Explosive plays allowed11.3%76th
Yards per carry allowed4.9680th
Yards per attempt allowed6.4038th
Sack rate4.3%111th
3rd downs allowed41.2%91st

Players

Anthony Reagan Jr. (RB), D'Wayne' Winfield (QB), Steven Blanco (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. LamarW 38–7
2at USCL 30–49
3vs. UABW 21–14
4at CharlotteW 34–7
5vs. Arkansas StateW 23–20
6at Louisiana TechL 31–32
7vs. TroyW 33–6
8at Southern MissL 31–35

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Louisiana with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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