This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Wisconsin

5–2 (3–1 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating8.343rd of 138
SP+ offense23.994th of 138
SP+ defense15.711th of 138
PRIME13.618th of 138
Elo170832nd of 138
Week 9

Wisconsin at Iowa

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Wisconsin 13, Iowa 21. Big Al's pick: Iowa (65%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game27.081st
Yards per play6.1968th
Success rate43.4%74th
Explosive play rate11.9%80th
Yards per carry4.72102nd
Yards per pass attempt8.8027th
Sack rate allowed5.3%69th
3rd down conversion46.9%27th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed15.313th
Yards per play allowed4.211st
Success rate allowed35.7%19th
Explosive plays allowed5.6%1st
Yards per carry allowed3.476th
Yards per attempt allowed5.062nd
Sack rate4.4%110th
3rd downs allowed36.7%52nd

Players

Colton Joseph (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Notre DameL 13–41
2vs. Western IllinoisW 36–9
3vs. Eastern MichiganW 54–10
4at Penn StateW 24–20
5vs. Michigan StateW 31–3
7at UCLAL 7–17
8vs. USCW 24–7

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Wisconsin with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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