This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Washington

4–3 (1–3 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating8.244th of 138
SP+ offense29.748th of 138
SP+ defense21.537th of 138
PRIME3.153rd of 138
Elo170433rd of 138
Week 9

Washington at Nebraska

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET. SP+ projects Washington 20, Nebraska 29. Big Al's pick: Nebraska (76%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game27.976th
Yards per play6.6930th
Success rate45.1%58th
Explosive play rate14.6%24th
Yards per carry4.7799th
Yards per pass attempt8.7828th
Sack rate allowed8.1%113th
3rd down conversion37.7%85th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed22.757th
Yards per play allowed5.2327th
Success rate allowed37.7%37th
Explosive plays allowed9.3%21st
Yards per carry allowed4.1728th
Yards per attempt allowed6.5346th
Sack rate5.1%94th
3rd downs allowed29.6%14th

Players

Brian Bonner Jr. (RB), Chris Lawson (WR), Demond Williams Jr. (QB), Dezmen Roebuck (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Washington StateW 24–10
2vs. Utah StateW 16–14
3vs. Eastern WashingtonW 48–16
4vs. MinnesotaL 24–27
5at USCL 21–25
6vs. IowaL 24–41
7at PurdueW 38–26

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Washington with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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