This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Rutgers

2–5 (1–3 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-3.893rd of 138
SP+ offense30.343rd of 138
SP+ defense34.3125th of 138
PRIME-11.4113th of 138
Elo1354100th of 138
Week 9

Michigan at Rutgers

Sat, Oct 31, 12:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Rutgers 19, Michigan 33. Big Al's pick: Michigan (87%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game28.769th
Yards per play6.6534th
Success rate47.4%30th
Explosive play rate12.6%57th
Yards per carry5.0575th
Yards per pass attempt9.3117th
Sack rate allowed8.1%112th
3rd down conversion46.3%30th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed33.3128th
Yards per play allowed6.74116th
Success rate allowed45.4%106th
Explosive plays allowed15.5%132nd
Yards per carry allowed6.85136th
Yards per attempt allowed6.9563rd
Sack rate4.3%113th
3rd downs allowed38.6%72nd

Players

Antwan Raymond (RB), Clay Thevenin (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. MassachusettsL 21–37
2at Boston CollegeL 21–28
3vs. USCL 35–42
4vs. HowardW 58–7
5vs. IndianaL 15–47
7at MarylandW 37–30
8at NorthwesternL 14–42

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Rutgers with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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