This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Oregon

4–3 (2–2 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating18.811th of 138
SP+ offense34.918th of 138
SP+ defense16.415th of 138
PRIME5.845th of 138
Elo178717th of 138
Week 9

Northwestern at Oregon

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Oregon 31, Northwestern 22. Big Al's pick: Oregon (55%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game33.141st
Yards per play6.1967th
Success rate44.3%64th
Explosive play rate12.5%63rd
Yards per carry4.7997th
Yards per pass attempt7.6767th
Sack rate allowed4.1%34th
3rd down conversion36.6%94th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed20.739th
Yards per play allowed5.4042nd
Success rate allowed35.5%17th
Explosive plays allowed10.2%45th
Yards per carry allowed4.6759th
Yards per attempt allowed6.5043rd
Sack rate6.1%72nd
3rd downs allowed28.8%12th

Players

Dakorien Moore (WR), Dante Moore (QB), Dierre Hill Jr. (RB), Dylan Raiola (QB), Evan Stewart (WR), Jordon Davison (RB), Matayo Uiagalelei (LB), Teitum Tuioti (LB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Boise StateW 34–27
2at Oklahoma StateL 31–39
3vs. Portland StateW 84–0
4at USCW 41–27
6vs. UCLAL 15–17
7vs. NebraskaW 17–14
8at IllinoisL 10–21

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Oregon with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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