This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mountain West

San José State

4–4 (2–2 Mountain West). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-9.3109th of 138
SP+ offense17.6118th of 138
SP+ defense26.473rd of 138
PRIME-13.0120th of 138
Elo1352102nd of 138
Week 9

New Mexico at San José State

Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: San José State 11, New Mexico 28. Big Al's pick: New Mexico (88%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game20.4117th
Yards per play6.0674th
Success rate40.2%101st
Explosive play rate11.4%92nd
Yards per carry4.64108th
Yards per pass attempt7.9753rd
Sack rate allowed7.1%101st
3rd down conversion33.3%114th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed22.555th
Yards per play allowed5.4953rd
Success rate allowed41.9%68th
Explosive plays allowed10.5%55th
Yards per carry allowed5.0181st
Yards per attempt allowed6.4039th
Sack rate8.5%20th
3rd downs allowed35.4%46th

Players

Aizik Mahuka (LB), Carson Clark (WR), Cooper Hoch (WR), Dylan Lee (LB), Jabari Bates (RB), Jayland McGlothen (DL), Jerry Mcclure (WR), Justin Stearns (DL), Luke Weaver (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Eastern MichiganW 27–21
1at USCL 26–42
2vs. Cal PolyW 30–20
3vs. Fresno StateL 10–26
5at Hawai'iW 20–16
6vs. WyomingL 13–16
7at UTEPW 24–11
8at NevadaL 13–28

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare San José State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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