This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Penn State

3–4 (0–4 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating7.348th of 138
SP+ offense28.063rd of 138
SP+ defense20.832nd of 138
PRIME4.251st of 138
Elo180016th of 138
Week 9

Purdue at Penn State

Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET. SP+ projection: Penn State 35, Purdue 25. Big Al's pick: Penn State (78%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game28.768th
Yards per play5.9189th
Success rate42.0%86th
Explosive play rate10.3%114th
Yards per carry3.98130th
Yards per pass attempt8.2144th
Sack rate allowed4.8%52nd
3rd down conversion37.2%88th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed18.927th
Yards per play allowed5.6259th
Success rate allowed39.6%53rd
Explosive plays allowed12.6%99th
Yards per carry allowed5.98128th
Yards per attempt allowed5.479th
Sack rate4.8%104th
3rd downs allowed27.9%9th

Players

Andrew Rappleyea (TE), Benjamin Brahmer (TE), Brett Eskildsen (WR), Carson Hansen (RB), Chase Sowell (WR), James Peoples (RB), Rocco Becht (QB), Tony Rojas (LB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. MarshallW 45–0
2at TempleW 27–9
3vs. BuffaloW 55–13
4vs. WisconsinL 20–24
5at NorthwesternL 13–34
6vs. USCL 23–31
7at MichiganL 18–21

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Penn State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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