This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Florida

5–2 (3–2 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating9.238th of 138
SP+ offense33.527th of 138
SP+ defense24.962nd of 138
PRIME10.029th of 138
Elo164338th of 138
Week 9

Florida vs. Georgia

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projects Florida 22, Georgia 39. Big Al's pick: Georgia (89%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game39.69th
Yards per play6.4347th
Success rate44.3%62nd
Explosive play rate12.9%48th
Yards per carry5.4349th
Yards per pass attempt7.7964th
Sack rate allowed4.0%31st
3rd down conversion42.9%53rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed28.3106th
Yards per play allowed6.40104th
Success rate allowed45.5%107th
Explosive plays allowed10.4%54th
Yards per carry allowed4.9478th
Yards per attempt allowed8.32103rd
Sack rate9.1%14th
3rd downs allowed46.9%126th

Players

Aaron Philo (QB), Bailey Stockton (WR), Caden Veltkamp (QB), Dallas Wilson (WR), Dom Henry (WR), Easton Messer (WR), Jadan Baugh (RB), Kelby Valsin (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Florida AtlanticW 66–21
2vs. CampbellW 52–3
3at AuburnW 44–39
4vs. Ole MissW 52–28
5at MissouriL 17–45
6vs. South CarolinaL 19–38
7at TexasW 27–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Florida with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.