This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Ohio State

6–1 (4–0 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating26.81st of 138
SP+ offense38.76th of 138
SP+ defense11.91st of 138
PRIME24.23rd of 138
Elo20693rd of 138
Week 9

Ohio State at USC

Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Ohio State 35, USC 26. Big Al's pick: Ohio State (76%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game39.310th
Yards per play7.549th
Success rate51.9%8th
Explosive play rate15.4%14th
Yards per carry4.8096th
Yards per pass attempt11.632nd
Sack rate allowed6.9%96th
3rd down conversion49.4%16th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed13.45th
Yards per play allowed4.393rd
Success rate allowed34.0%9th
Explosive plays allowed9.6%28th
Yards per carry allowed3.799th
Yards per attempt allowed5.041st
Sack rate3.9%122nd
3rd downs allowed35.6%47th

Players

Bo Jackson (RB), Ja'Kobi Jackson (RB), Jeremiah Smith (WR), Julian Sayin (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Ball StateW 56–3
2at TexasL 23–24
3vs. Kent StateW 59–3
4vs. IllinoisW 42–19
5at IowaW 31–14
6vs. MarylandW 45–16
7at IndianaW 19–15

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Ohio State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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