This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Ole Miss

5–2 (3–2 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating17.114th of 138
SP+ offense39.14th of 138
SP+ defense22.542nd of 138
PRIME14.315th of 138
Elo19238th of 138
Week 9

Auburn at Ole Miss

Sat, Oct 31, 12:45 PM ET. SP+ projection: Ole Miss 34, Auburn 23. Big Al's pick: Ole Miss (80%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game36.025th
Yards per play6.6931st
Success rate51.4%11th
Explosive play rate13.1%43rd
Yards per carry5.5241st
Yards per pass attempt7.7066th
Sack rate allowed2.2%6th
3rd down conversion45.3%37th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.380th
Yards per play allowed5.6565th
Success rate allowed40.9%61st
Explosive plays allowed12.2%91st
Yards per carry allowed4.7869th
Yards per attempt allowed6.9060th
Sack rate4.8%102nd
3rd downs allowed44.0%107th

Players

Caleb Odom (TE), Deuce Alexander (WR), Kewan Lacy (RB), Trinidad Chambliss (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. LouisvilleW 41–38
2vs. CharlotteW 41–9
3vs. LSUW 32–24
4at FloridaL 28–52
6at VanderbiltW 52–17
7vs. MissouriW 31–3
8at TexasL 27–34

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Ole Miss with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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