This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Oklahoma

4–3 (2–2 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating9.834th of 138
SP+ offense23.796th of 138
SP+ defense14.26th of 138
PRIME11.525th of 138
Elo171927th of 138
Week 9

South Carolina at Oklahoma

Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET. SP+ projection: Oklahoma 23, South Carolina 21. Big Al's pick: Oklahoma (58%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game21.6110th
Yards per play5.73100th
Success rate39.4%111th
Explosive play rate9.3%123rd
Yards per carry3.98129th
Yards per pass attempt8.0449th
Sack rate allowed7.4%105th
3rd down conversion36.8%91st

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed17.724th
Yards per play allowed5.0318th
Success rate allowed32.9%6th
Explosive plays allowed9.1%18th
Yards per carry allowed4.5449th
Yards per attempt allowed6.2131st
Sack rate10.9%5th
3rd downs allowed25.3%3rd

Players

Adepoju Adebawore (DL), Isaiah Sategna (WR), John Mateer (QB), Lloyd Avant (RB), Owen Heinecke (LB), Raymond Moore III (QB), Rocky Beers (TE).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. UTEPW 51–0
2at MichiganL 10–17
3vs. New MexicoW 14–6
4at GeorgiaL 13–41
6vs. TexasW 27–24
7vs. KentuckyL 13–21
8at Mississippi StateW 23–15

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Oklahoma with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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