This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
FBS Independents

Notre Dame

6–1. 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating24.84th of 138
SP+ offense39.13rd of 138
SP+ defense14.68th of 138
PRIME21.36th of 138
Elo20821st of 138
Week 9

Notre Dame vs. Navy

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Notre Dame 42, Navy 17. Big Al's pick: Notre Dame (97%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game41.16th
Yards per play6.7329th
Success rate52.1%6th
Explosive play rate12.1%71st
Yards per carry5.2368th
Yards per pass attempt8.5435th
Sack rate allowed0.9%2nd
3rd down conversion43.5%50th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed13.44th
Yards per play allowed4.678th
Success rate allowed35.1%15th
Explosive plays allowed6.1%2nd
Yards per carry allowed3.231st
Yards per attempt allowed6.3937th
Sack rate7.4%39th
3rd downs allowed41.5%93rd

Players

Aneyas Williams (RB), C.J. Carr (QB), Jonaz Walton (RB), Jordan Faison (WR), Micah Gilbert (WR), Nolan James Jr. (RB), Tyrell Henry (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. WisconsinW 41–13
2vs. RiceW 52–0
3vs. Michigan StateW 27–10
4at PurdueW 49–10
5at North CarolinaW 37–26
6vs. StanfordW 58–7
7at BYUL 24–28

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Notre Dame with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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