This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

BYU

6–1 (3–1 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating20.69th of 138
SP+ offense35.017th of 138
SP+ defense14.79th of 138
PRIME16.811th of 138
Elo170831st of 138
Week 9

Arizona State at BYU

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projects BYU 37, Arizona State 14. Big Al's pick: BYU (89%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game33.140th
Yards per play6.2858th
Success rate46.5%36th
Explosive play rate12.2%69th
Yards per carry5.9322nd
Yards per pass attempt6.74104th
Sack rate allowed1.7%4th
3rd down conversion50.0%13th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed18.626th
Yards per play allowed5.4350th
Success rate allowed42.6%77th
Explosive plays allowed9.1%17th
Yards per carry allowed3.9920th
Yards per attempt allowed7.0570th
Sack rate5.5%82nd
3rd downs allowed44.0%105th

Players

Bear Bachmeier (QB), Kyler Kasper (WR), Legend Glasker (WR), Tausili Akana (DE).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Utah TechW 63–7
2vs. ArizonaW 28–17
3at Colorado StateW 41–23
5at TCUW 17–10
6vs. Iowa StateW 24–10
7vs. Notre DameW 28–24
8at UCFL 31–39

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare BYU with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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