This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Purdue

3–4 (2–2 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-0.173rd of 138
SP+ offense31.241st of 138
SP+ defense31.8115th of 138
PRIME0.665th of 138
Elo142386th of 138
Week 9

Purdue at Penn State

Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET. SP+ projects Purdue 25, Penn State 35. Big Al's pick: Penn State (78%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game31.353rd
Yards per play6.3057th
Success rate45.8%45th
Explosive play rate12.7%54th
Yards per carry4.30120th
Yards per pass attempt8.6033rd
Sack rate allowed6.1%85th
3rd down conversion44.8%41st

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed32.3122nd
Yards per play allowed6.87118th
Success rate allowed46.0%110th
Explosive plays allowed18.2%137th
Yards per carry allowed5.65115th
Yards per attempt allowed8.27100th
Sack rate3.6%125th
3rd downs allowed45.7%117th

Players

Asaad Waseem (WR), Fame Ijeboi (RB), Ryan Browne (QB), Xavier Townsend (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Indiana StateW 44–19
2vs. Wake ForestL 36–38
3at UCLAL 38–52
4vs. Notre DameL 10–49
5at IllinoisW 24–17
6vs. MinnesotaW 41–13
7vs. WashingtonL 26–38

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Purdue with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.