This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

North Carolina

4–3 (2–2 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating5.054th of 138
SP+ offense26.276th of 138
SP+ defense21.235th of 138
PRIME6.837th of 138
Elo146177th of 138
Week 9

Miami at North Carolina

Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: North Carolina 17, Miami 35. Big Al's pick: Miami (89%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game24.499th
Yards per play5.8991st
Success rate44.3%63rd
Explosive play rate11.2%94th
Yards per carry4.8490th
Yards per pass attempt7.1788th
Sack rate allowed6.1%83rd
3rd down conversion38.6%80th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed20.942nd
Yards per play allowed5.5054th
Success rate allowed44.0%92nd
Explosive plays allowed6.9%5th
Yards per carry allowed4.7667th
Yards per attempt allowed6.6151st
Sack rate5.3%89th
3rd downs allowed44.2%109th

Players

Benjamin Hall (RB), Billy Edwards (QB), Demon June (RB), Jelani Thurman (TE), Jordan Shipp (WR), Xavier Lewis (DL).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. TCUW 15–10
2vs. East Tennessee StateW 35–3
3at ClemsonL 20–28
5vs. Notre DameL 26–37
6at PittsburghW 21–17
7at DukeW 24–20
8vs. SyracuseL 30–31

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare North Carolina with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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