This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

Stanford

4–4 (2–3 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-11.2115th of 138
SP+ offense20.8106th of 138
SP+ defense31.5111th of 138
PRIME-8.5103rd of 138
Elo1157127th of 138
Week 9

Stanford at Louisville

Sat, Oct 31, 3:15 PM ET. SP+ projects Stanford 19, Louisville 46. Big Al's pick: Louisville (97%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game19.9126th
Yards per play6.3753rd
Success rate43.5%73rd
Explosive play rate10.9%101st
Yards per carry4.65107th
Yards per pass attempt8.3043rd
Sack rate allowed4.8%54th
3rd down conversion44.0%48th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed35.5132nd
Yards per play allowed6.35102nd
Success rate allowed45.1%103rd
Explosive plays allowed14.2%119th
Yards per carry allowed5.89124th
Yards per attempt allowed6.8657th
Sack rate1.9%137th
3rd downs allowed41.1%90th

Players

Benjamin Blackburn (TE), Caden High (WR), Micah Ford (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Hawai'iW 37–27
1vs. MiamiL 6–45
3at DukeL 7–35
4vs. Georgia TechW 34–27
5at Wake ForestL 3–57
6at Notre DameL 7–58
7vs. ElonW 34–7
8vs. NC StateW 31–28

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Stanford with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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