This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Michigan State

2–6 (0–5 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-1.179th of 138
SP+ offense24.691st of 138
SP+ defense26.169th of 138
PRIME2.955th of 138
Elo144480th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game19.9125th
Yards per play4.84131st
Success rate40.8%96th
Explosive play rate8.1%130th
Yards per carry4.10127th
Yards per pass attempt6.07120th
Sack rate allowed8.6%116th
3rd down conversion35.9%97th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.888th
Yards per play allowed6.0586th
Success rate allowed46.0%111th
Explosive plays allowed11.5%78th
Yards per carry allowed4.7062nd
Yards per attempt allowed8.35105th
Sack rate5.9%75th
3rd downs allowed45.8%118th

Players

Alessio Milivojevic (QB), Autavius Ison (RB), Bryson Hammer (WR), Camryn Edwards (RB), Chrishon Mccray (WR), Fredrick Moore (), Jayden Savoury (TE), Jaziun Patterson (RB), Rodney Bullard Jr. (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. ToledoW 30–20
2vs. Eastern MichiganW 35–7
3at Notre DameL 10–27
4vs. NebraskaL 13–31
5at WisconsinL 3–31
6vs. IllinoisL 37–38
7vs. NorthwesternL 21–24
8at UCLAL 10–28

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Michigan State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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