This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Sun Belt

South Alabama

4–3 (2–1 Sun Belt). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-11.2114th of 138
SP+ offense28.856th of 138
SP+ defense39.7136th of 138
PRIME-8.4101st of 138
Elo1354101st of 138
Week 9

Louisiana Tech at South Alabama

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: South Alabama 32, Louisiana Tech 37. Big Al's pick: Louisiana Tech (62%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game35.133rd
Yards per play6.5738th
Success rate46.4%37th
Explosive play rate13.0%47th
Yards per carry5.2567th
Yards per pass attempt9.677th
Sack rate allowed3.0%19th
3rd down conversion45.9%33rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed32.4123rd
Yards per play allowed6.79117th
Success rate allowed47.4%119th
Explosive plays allowed13.6%111th
Yards per carry allowed5.41106th
Yards per attempt allowed8.0292nd
Sack rate4.2%116th
3rd downs allowed44.4%110th

Players

Keenan Phillips (RB), PJ Martin (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. SE LouisianaW 39–14
2at TulaneL 24–28
3vs. OhioW 41–36
4at KentuckyL 21–45
5vs. UL MonroeW 52–35
6at Arkansas StateW 56–49
8at MarshallL 13–20

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare South Alabama with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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