This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

LSU

6–2 (3–2 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating22.66th of 138
SP+ offense37.310th of 138
SP+ defense14.47th of 138
PRIME26.21st of 138
Elo19436th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game40.17th
Yards per play6.4149th
Success rate49.5%19th
Explosive play rate12.8%52nd
Yards per carry5.0279th
Yards per pass attempt8.0251st
Sack rate allowed4.5%44th
3rd down conversion47.2%23rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed16.018th
Yards per play allowed5.0920th
Success rate allowed37.7%38th
Explosive plays allowed9.9%32nd
Yards per carry allowed4.2837th
Yards per attempt allowed6.5950th
Sack rate12.2%1st
3rd downs allowed36.8%55th

Players

Deuce Geralds (DT), Dilin Jones (RB), Eugene Wilson (WR), Jackson Harris (WR), Jordan Ross (DE), Princewill Umanmielen (DE), Sam Leavitt (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. ClemsonW 51–10
2vs. Louisiana TechW 45–14
3at Ole MissL 24–32
4vs. Texas A&MW 35–6
5vs. McNeeseW 63–14
6at KentuckyL 34–35
7vs. Mississippi StateW 31–0
8at AuburnW 38–17

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare LSU with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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