This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Vanderbilt

3–5 (0–5 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating0.371st of 138
SP+ offense27.765th of 138
SP+ defense27.987th of 138
PRIME-1.978th of 138
Elo154261st of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game22.8106th
Yards per play6.3754th
Success rate45.8%44th
Explosive play rate12.6%59th
Yards per carry4.35119th
Yards per pass attempt8.8724th
Sack rate allowed6.1%84th
3rd down conversion45.4%36th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed30.2113th
Yards per play allowed5.6260th
Success rate allowed43.0%81st
Explosive plays allowed10.3%53rd
Yards per carry allowed5.1188th
Yards per attempt allowed6.4241st
Sack rate5.5%81st
3rd downs allowed40.4%85th

Players

Jared Curtis (QB), Junior Sherrill (WR), Makhilyn Young (RB), Sedrick Alexander (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Austin PeayW 28–9
2vs. DelawareW 35–26
3vs. NC StateW 35–31
4at AuburnL 15–21
5at GeorgiaL 14–38
6vs. Ole MissL 17–52
7vs. ArkansasL 21–31
8at KentuckyL 17–34

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Vanderbilt with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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