This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Eastern Michigan

4–5 (3–2 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-14.4123rd of 138
SP+ offense17.8115th of 138
SP+ defense31.8113th of 138
PRIME-15.7129th of 138
Elo1219121st of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game21.3112th
Yards per play4.88130th
Success rate36.7%126th
Explosive play rate7.7%133rd
Yards per carry4.57112th
Yards per pass attempt5.30130th
Sack rate allowed4.4%40th
3rd down conversion35.2%101st

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.786th
Yards per play allowed7.01126th
Success rate allowed49.3%131st
Explosive plays allowed15.6%133rd
Yards per carry allowed4.9479th
Yards per attempt allowed9.42127th
Sack rate3.4%128th
3rd downs allowed49.4%132nd

Players

Amareon Blue (RB), Ben Prosper (WR), Braydon Bennett (RB), Harold Mack (WR), Joey Mattord (RB), Joshua Long (TE), Matthew Coleman (WR), Noah Kim (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Sacramento StateW 28–17
1vs. San José StateL 21–27
2at Michigan StateL 7–35
3at WisconsinL 10–54
4vs. LindenwoodW 29–3
5at MassachusettsW 38–14
6at AkronW 25–23
7vs. ToledoL 14–34
8at OhioL 20–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Eastern Michigan with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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