This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Massachusetts

4–4 (1–3 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-6.599th of 138
SP+ offense20.2109th of 138
SP+ defense26.876th of 138
PRIME-10.7111th of 138
Elo1122129th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game26.586th
Yards per play5.69103rd
Success rate41.4%90th
Explosive play rate10.3%113th
Yards per carry4.8989th
Yards per pass attempt6.80100th
Sack rate allowed5.1%60th
3rd down conversion30.1%132nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed21.147th
Yards per play allowed5.4044th
Success rate allowed40.8%59th
Explosive plays allowed10.0%38th
Yards per carry allowed4.6861st
Yards per attempt allowed6.7353rd
Sack rate7.1%47th
3rd downs allowed40.2%83rd

Players

Dylan Lonergan (QB), Elijah Faulkner (RB), KJ Duff (WR), Ty Harding (WR), William Watson III (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at RutgersW 37–21
2vs. Sacred HeartW 37–10
3vs. StonehillW 36–14
4at Sacramento StateW 35–6
5vs. Eastern MichiganL 14–38
6vs. Miami (OH)L 19–20
7at BuffaloL 18–25
8at UConnL 16–35

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Massachusetts with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.