This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Ohio

6–2 (4–0 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-2.083rd of 138
SP+ offense24.292nd of 138
SP+ defense26.170th of 138
PRIME-2.882nd of 138
Elo142785th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game29.665th
Yards per play6.1571st
Success rate46.6%34th
Explosive play rate11.5%91st
Yards per carry5.2862nd
Yards per pass attempt7.9554th
Sack rate allowed7.1%99th
3rd down conversion55.0%4th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed21.952nd
Yards per play allowed6.0383rd
Success rate allowed41.5%66th
Explosive plays allowed11.4%77th
Yards per carry allowed5.1389th
Yards per attempt allowed7.3675th
Sack rate5.4%87th
3rd downs allowed40.8%87th

Players

Duncan Brune (RB), Ike Ackerman (DE), Michael Molnar (LB), Riley Neer (WR), Victor Rosa (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at NebraskaL 21–49
2vs. Jacksonville StateW 29–27
3at South AlabamaL 36–41
4vs. StonehillW 35–7
5at Kent StateW 13–10
6vs. Central MichiganW 31–14
7at Sacramento StateW 48–7
8vs. Eastern MichiganW 24–20

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Ohio with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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