This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Sacramento State

1–7 (0–5 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-26.1137th of 138
SP+ offense11.2138th of 138
SP+ defense36.9129th of 138
PRIME-30.1138th of 138
Elo986137th of 138
Week 9

Kent State at Sacramento State

Fri, Oct 30, 10:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Sacramento State 19, Kent State 21. Big Al's pick: Kent State (60%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game15.2134th
Yards per play5.8393rd
Success rate43.8%69th
Explosive play rate9.6%119th
Yards per carry4.61111th
Yards per pass attempt7.3084th
Sack rate allowed5.1%61st
3rd down conversion36.8%92nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed32.9126th
Yards per play allowed5.9079th
Success rate allowed38.7%49th
Explosive plays allowed11.0%71st
Yards per carry allowed5.0383rd
Yards per attempt allowed7.0269th
Sack rate2.8%133rd
3rd downs allowed39.0%75th

Players

Isaiah Ene (RB), Jackson Sharman (QB), Onterrio Smith Jr. (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Eastern MichiganL 17–28
1vs. Mississippi Valley StateW 52–0
2at Fresno StateL 3–49
3vs. North Dakota StateL 10–31
4vs. MassachusettsL 6–35
6at Bowling GreenL 10–38
7vs. OhioL 7–48
8at Ball StateL 17–34

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Sacramento State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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