This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mid-American

Akron

1–7 (0–4 Mid-American). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-22.9133rd of 138
SP+ offense14.8130th of 138
SP+ defense37.0130th of 138
PRIME-21.2135th of 138
Elo849138th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game19.0129th
Yards per play5.46118th
Success rate40.4%99th
Explosive play rate12.5%64th
Yards per carry5.1969th
Yards per pass attempt6.01123rd
Sack rate allowed5.9%80th
3rd down conversion40.8%66th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed32.8125th
Yards per play allowed7.54137th
Success rate allowed48.5%125th
Explosive plays allowed14.4%120th
Yards per carry allowed6.53134th
Yards per attempt allowed8.87118th
Sack rate1.8%138th
3rd downs allowed40.0%81st

Players

Brayden Roggow (QB), Jack Foley (WR), Jordan Gant (RB), Kyan Mason (WR), Miles Burris (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Wake ForestL 16–38
2vs. Robert MorrisW 45–10
3at MinnesotaL 7–41
4vs. UNLVL 10–38
5at Central MichiganL 17–41
6vs. Eastern MichiganL 23–25
7at Miami (OH)L 14–34
8at Kent StateL 20–35

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Akron with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.