This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

UCLA

7–0 (5–0 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating14.019th of 138
SP+ offense32.139th of 138
SP+ defense18.022nd of 138
PRIME13.717th of 138
Elo170930th of 138
Week 9

Nevada at UCLA

Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET. SP+ projects UCLA 33, Nevada 12. Big Al's pick: UCLA (89%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game34.437th
Yards per play7.0916th
Success rate50.2%13th
Explosive play rate14.2%30th
Yards per carry5.9721st
Yards per pass attempt9.4115th
Sack rate allowed5.3%68th
3rd down conversion51.7%9th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed15.312th
Yards per play allowed4.332nd
Success rate allowed30.9%2nd
Explosive plays allowed8.6%10th
Yards per carry allowed3.548th
Yards per attempt allowed5.296th
Sack rate6.3%67th
3rd downs allowed23.5%2nd

Players

Anthony Woods (RB), Jaivian Thomas (RB), Jalen Woods (LB), Nico Iamaleava (QB), Samuel Omosigho (LB), Semaj Morgan (WR), Wayne Knight (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at CaliforniaW 45–24
2vs. San Diego StateW 28–10
3vs. PurdueW 52–38
4at MarylandW 54–3
6at OregonW 17–15
7vs. WisconsinW 17–7
8vs. Michigan StateW 28–10

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare UCLA with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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