This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Iowa

5–2 (2–2 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating13.620th of 138
SP+ offense29.549th of 138
SP+ defense16.313th of 138
PRIME10.827th of 138
Elo184611th of 138
Week 9

Wisconsin at Iowa

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Iowa 21, Wisconsin 13. Big Al's pick: Iowa (65%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game28.075th
Yards per play5.73101st
Success rate40.2%102nd
Explosive play rate11.6%84th
Yards per carry5.9223rd
Yards per pass attempt5.70128th
Sack rate allowed2.3%7th
3rd down conversion31.1%127th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed14.38th
Yards per play allowed5.3238th
Success rate allowed38.1%42nd
Explosive plays allowed10.0%39th
Yards per carry allowed3.424th
Yards per attempt allowed8.38106th
Sack rate11.6%2nd
3rd downs allowed36.8%54th

Players

DJ Vonnahme (TE), Hank Brown (QB), Joseph Anderson (DE), Kamari Moulton (RB), La'Don Bryant (WR), Tony Diaz (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Northern IllinoisW 40–0
2vs. Iowa StateW 16–13
3vs. Northern IowaW 55–0
4at MichiganW 20–19
5vs. Ohio StateL 14–31
6at WashingtonW 41–24
8at MinnesotaL 10–13

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Iowa with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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