This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Pac-12

Utah State

2–5 (1–2 Pac-12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-9.0108th of 138
SP+ offense17.2120th of 138
SP+ defense25.966th of 138
PRIME-2.983rd of 138
Elo136496th of 138
Week 9

Colorado State at Utah State

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Utah State 30, Colorado State 27. Big Al's pick: Utah State (72%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game14.9138th
Yards per play5.53116th
Success rate36.6%127th
Explosive play rate10.6%106th
Yards per carry4.64109th
Yards per pass attempt6.78101st
Sack rate allowed6.5%91st
3rd down conversion35.8%98th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed23.060th
Yards per play allowed4.9314th
Success rate allowed38.3%46th
Explosive plays allowed6.7%3rd
Yards per carry allowed4.6053rd
Yards per attempt allowed5.5011th
Sack rate5.8%76th
3rd downs allowed42.3%97th

Players

Eli Wood (), Grady Brosterhous (), Javen Jacobs (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Idaho StateL 17–29
2at WashingtonL 14–16
3at UtahL 0–33
4vs. TroyW 21–10
5at Boise StateL 18–37
6vs. Washington StateW 17–16
8at Texas StateL 17–20

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Utah State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.