This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Pac-12

Washington State

1–7 (0–4 Pac-12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-12.1117th of 138
SP+ offense16.6125th of 138
SP+ defense28.291st of 138
PRIME-10.2109th of 138
Elo141987th of 138
Week 9

Washington State at San Diego State

Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Washington State 19, San Diego State 24. Big Al's pick: San Diego State (51%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game18.9130th
Yards per play5.57109th
Success rate38.9%115th
Explosive play rate8.7%129th
Yards per carry4.9584th
Yards per pass attempt6.8498th
Sack rate allowed10.4%126th
3rd down conversion33.3%116th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed27.6101st
Yards per play allowed5.6563rd
Success rate allowed37.1%34th
Explosive plays allowed10.9%66th
Yards per carry allowed5.63114th
Yards per attempt allowed5.8117th
Sack rate2.6%135th
3rd downs allowed33.1%28th

Players

Branden Ganashamoorthy (WR), Caden Pinnick (QB), Daniel Blood (WR), Darrius Clemons (WR), Kirby Vorhees (RB), Tank Hawkins (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at WashingtonL 10–24
2at Kansas StateL 7–34
3vs. DuquesneW 48–7
4vs. ArizonaL 24–34
5vs. Fresno StateL 6–26
6at Utah StateL 16–17
7at Oregon StateL 30–48
8vs. Boise StateL 10–31

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Washington State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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