This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big Ten

Minnesota

5–2 (3–1 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating3.160th of 138
SP+ offense25.085th of 138
SP+ defense21.839th of 138
PRIME0.169th of 138
Elo143482nd of 138
Week 9

Minnesota at Indiana

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Minnesota 11, Indiana 34. Big Al's pick: Indiana (96%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game26.683rd
Yards per play5.54112th
Success rate42.0%85th
Explosive play rate11.5%87th
Yards per carry3.92131st
Yards per pass attempt7.1090th
Sack rate allowed2.6%13th
3rd down conversion34.7%107th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed20.134th
Yards per play allowed5.1524th
Success rate allowed38.2%43rd
Explosive plays allowed10.9%63rd
Yards per carry allowed4.5952nd
Yards per attempt allowed6.1228th
Sack rate6.8%54th
3rd downs allowed29.4%13th

Players

Darius Taylor (RB), Drake Lindsey (QB), Javon Tracy (WR), Karter Menz (DL), Noah Jennings (WR), T.J. Bush (DL), TJ Thomas Jr. (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Eastern IllinoisW 59–7
2vs. Mississippi StateL 13–38
3vs. AkronW 41–7
4at WashingtonW 27–24
5vs. MichiganW 20–14
6at PurdueL 13–41
8vs. IowaW 13–10

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Minnesota with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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