This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Auburn

4–3 (2–3 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating8.940th of 138
SP+ offense27.167th of 138
SP+ defense18.524th of 138
PRIME6.438th of 138
Elo166937th of 138
Week 9

Auburn at Ole Miss

Sat, Oct 31, 12:45 PM ET. SP+ projection: Auburn 23, Ole Miss 34. Big Al's pick: Ole Miss (80%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game25.493rd
Yards per play5.54113th
Success rate39.6%110th
Explosive play rate13.4%39th
Yards per carry5.8328th
Yards per pass attempt5.94124th
Sack rate allowed10.7%127th
3rd down conversion41.1%65th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed24.169th
Yards per play allowed5.9981st
Success rate allowed44.8%99th
Explosive plays allowed10.9%65th
Yards per carry allowed4.3940th
Yards per attempt allowed8.2197th
Sack rate6.1%70th
3rd downs allowed37.8%60th

Players

Byrum Brown (QB), Chas Nimrod (WR), Elijah Melendez (LB), Jeremiah Cobb (RB), Keshaun Singleton (WR), Xavier Atkins (LB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. BaylorW 17–16
2vs. Southern MissW 43–8
3vs. FloridaL 39–44
4vs. VanderbiltW 21–15
5at TennesseeL 14–24
7at GeorgiaW 27–24
8vs. LSUL 17–38

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Auburn with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.