This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
SEC

Arkansas

3–4 (1–3 SEC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-1.782nd of 138
SP+ offense26.573rd of 138
SP+ defense28.593rd of 138
PRIME-0.372nd of 138
Elo151565th of 138
Week 9

Missouri at Arkansas

Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM ET. SP+ projection: Arkansas 19, Missouri 32. Big Al's pick: Missouri (75%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game21.0114th
Yards per play5.11127th
Success rate41.1%91st
Explosive play rate9.2%125th
Yards per carry4.10126th
Yards per pass attempt6.19116th
Sack rate allowed5.3%66th
3rd down conversion40.4%70th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed26.796th
Yards per play allowed6.91120th
Success rate allowed47.6%121st
Explosive plays allowed14.4%121st
Yards per carry allowed5.2394th
Yards per attempt allowed9.51130th
Sack rate4.8%103rd
3rd downs allowed46.8%124th

Players

Braylen Russell (RB), Chris Marshall (WR), KJ Jackson (QB), Sutton Smith (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. North AlabamaW 31–14
2at UtahL 10–43
3vs. GeorgiaL 17–45
4vs. TulsaW 34–6
5at Texas A&ML 7–34
6vs. TennesseeL 17–24
7at VanderbiltW 31–21

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Arkansas with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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